The Setting Company (EA) has stated that as much as eight million properties in England – or one in 4 – may very well be prone to flooding by 2050 as the danger will increase as a consequence of local weather change.
In its first evaluation of how a warming world might have an effect on flooding, the EA warned of elevated dangers from heavy rainfall and rising sea ranges.
The variety of properties in danger might enhance if extra homes are constructed on flood plains, however might lower if flood safety is improved.
At the moment, 6.3 million properties are thought of prone to flooding, new figures present, greater than beforehand thought.
“The frequency and severity of the kind of flooding occasions we’re experiencing is prone to turn into an increasing number of difficult,” stated Julie Foley, director of flood threat technique on the Setting Company.
The EA considers flooding from three important sources: rivers, seas and floor water – the place heavy rainfall overwhelms drainage techniques.
It defines properties as being “in danger” when the annual chance of flooding is larger than one in 1,000.
At the moment, the EA says 4.6 million houses and companies are prone to floor flooding, with London probably the most affected space.
That is a 43% enhance from its earlier estimate, however that is nearly fully as a consequence of improved datasets and laptop modeling methods, quite than a real-world enhance in flood threat.
Nonetheless, the EA says local weather change might enhance the variety of properties prone to floor flooding to six.1 million by mid-century.
It’s effectively documented that A A warming world generally increases the intensity of heavy rainfall.
Between October 2023 and March 2024, for instance, the quantity of rain on stormy days within the UK Due to climate change there has been an average increase of 20%.
The report additionally highlights the growing threat of flooding from rivers and the ocean – from 2.4 million properties immediately to round 3.1 million by mid-century.
The East Midlands, Yorkshire and the Humber, and south-east England are notably in danger.
Any such flooding—from rivers bursting their banks or storm surges that carry seawater ashore—might be particularly damaging as a result of it usually brings deep floodwaters.
Hotter winters enhance the probability of river flooding, whereas rising sea ranges enhance the probability of coastal flooding.
World sea ranges are rising primarily as a consequence of a mixture of melting glaciers and ice sheets, and the truth that heat water takes up more room. They’re anticipated to proceed to develop for hundreds of years to return.
Common sea degree across the UK has risen by round 20cm since 1900, with most of this occurring because the Nineteen Nineties.
It additionally has knock-on results for coastal erosion – the displacement of land alongside coastlines as a consequence of wave motion.
The UK already has a number of the quickest eroding coastlines in Europe.
However local weather change might successfully enhance the variety of properties prone to being misplaced to the ocean by 20,000 by 2100, even when enough shoreline administration plans are carried out, the EA stated.
It’ll enhance to greater than 3,500 between now and mid-century.
Preparations for flooding
This report solely considers how local weather change impacts future flood threat.
From building on floodplains to flood protection enhancements, there are a lot of different components that may form future flood impacts.
Thanks partially to the Thames Barrier flood defences, for instance, London is at the moment thought of much less prone to flooding from rivers and the ocean than another areas.
However there have been repeated warnings that the UK is ill-prepared for the consequences of a altering local weather.
Earlier this 12 months, a cross-party committee of MPs warned that the federal government had c Its existing flood defenses have not been adequately maintained or substantially new ones have been built. Lack of funds has been a serious challenge.
In response to immediately’s report, Floods Minister Emma Hardy admitted that “many communities are prone to flooding”.
“That is why we have dedicated £2.4 billion over the subsequent two years to flood defences, repairs and building to guard communities throughout the nation,” he stated.
Extra reporting by Jonah Fisher and Miho Tanaka; Map by Erwan Rivault
