This month, scenes of flood-ravaged neighborhoods in one of many driest areas on the planet shocked the world. Heavy rain within the United Arab Emirates and Oman inundated vehicles, blocked highways and killed at the least 21 folks. Flights out of Dubai airport, a significant world hub, have been severely disrupted.
The rain wasn’t a shock — forecasters had predicted storms and issued warnings days prematurely. However they have been definitely uncommon.
This is what to know.
Heavy rain is uncommon, however not unprecedented.
On common, the Arabian Peninsula receives just a few inches of rain a yr, nonetheless Scientists have found {that a} larger a part of that precipitation falls in occasional however extreme bursts, and never as periodic showers. These rains typically happen throughout El Nino situations just like the one the world is experiencing now.
UAE officers mentioned the 24-hour rainfall whole on April 16 was the very best within the nation Since records began in 1949. And elements of the nation already skilled a spherical of thunderstorms in March.
With its shoreline on the Arabian Sea, Oman can be susceptible to tropical cyclones. Previous storms there have introduced heavy rain, sturdy winds and mudslides, inflicting widespread injury.
Rainfall is predicted to extend as a result of world warming.
Stronger storms are a significant consequence of artificial world warming. Because the environment warms, it will probably maintain extra moisture, which might finally make its method to Earth as rain or snow.
However this doesn’t imply that rainfall patterns are altering in precisely the identical method in each a part of the world.
in them The latest assessment of climate research, scientists convened by the United Nations discovered that there was inadequate information to attract agency conclusions about precipitation traits within the Arabian Peninsula and the way local weather change is affecting them. Nonetheless, if world warming is allowed to proceed to worsen within the coming a long time, excessive rainfall occasions within the area will change into extra intense and extra frequent, the researchers mentioned.
Hotter oceans are a giant issue.
A global workforce of scientists has made the primary try to estimate the extent to which local weather change could have contributed to April’s storms. The researchers did not handle to pin down the connection, though of their evaluation, they did spotlight a recognized driver of heavy rain within the area: above-normal ocean temperatures.
Massive elements of the Indian, Pacific, and Atlantic oceans have been hotter than regular not too long ago, partially as a result of El Niño and different pure climate cycles, and partially as a result of Human-induced warming.
When trying solely at El Niño years, scientists estimate that storm occasions as rare as this month have introduced 10 % to 40 % extra rain to the area than it will in a world the place which was not warmed by human exercise. They cautioned, nonetheless, that these estimates have been extremely unsure.
“Usually, the rain is getting heavier,” mentioned Mansour Almazroui, a local weather scientist at King Abdulaziz College in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia, and one of many researchers who contributed to the evaluation.
The evaluation was carried out by scientists related to the World Local weather Characterization, a analysis collaboration that research excessive climate occasions shortly after they happen. Their findings about this month’s rains haven’t but been peer-reviewed, however are based mostly on standard method.
The position of cloud seeding just isn’t clear.
The UAE has labored for many years to extend water provides by growing rainfall and cloud seeding. Basically, this entails capturing particles into the clouds to encourage moisture to condense into bigger, heavier droplets, which usually tend to fall as rain or snow.
Cloud seeding and different rain-enhancing strategies have been tried world wide, together with in Australia, China, India, Israel, South Africa and the US. Research have discovered that these actions can, at finest, have an effect on precipitation solely marginally—sufficient to show a downpour right into a heavy downpour, however most likely not right into a flash flood. is
Nonetheless, specialists mentioned an in depth research can be wanted to pin down how a lot seeding could have contributed to this month’s storms.
“Usually, it is very difficult to evaluate the impression of seeding,” mentioned Luca Delle Monache, a local weather scientist on the Scripps Establishment of Oceanography in La Jolla, Calif. Attempts to use artificial intelligence To enhance the rain-enhancement program of the United Arab Emirates.
Omar Al Yazidi, an official of the Nationwide Meteorological Heart of the UAE, gave this data the news outlet That the company didn’t plant through the latest storms. His statements didn’t clarify, nonetheless, whether or not this was true even hours or days earlier.
Mr. Al Yazidi didn’t reply to emailed questions from The New York Occasions, and Adel Kamal, a spokesman for the middle, had no additional remark.
Cities in dry areas are usually not designed for flooding.
Wherever it happens, flooding isn’t just a matter of how a lot rain falls. It is also about what occurs to all that water as soon as it hits land – most critically, the place folks stay.
Cities in arid areas are sometimes not designed to empty very successfully. In these areas, paved surfaces forestall rain from seeping down into the earth, forcing it into drainage methods that may simply change into overwhelmed.
A recent study of SharjahThe capital, the third-largest emirate within the UAE, discovered that the town’s speedy development over the previous half-century has left it susceptible to flooding at decrease rainfall ranges than ever earlier than.
Omnia Al Desuqi Contributed reporting.
